Stadium East · Analysis updated 20:18 UTC
Cavalier vs Portmore United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.33 expected goals for Cavalier and 1.48 for Portmore United, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Portmore United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
66.0% probability
Expected goals
1.33 – 1.48
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cavalier home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portmore United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
59%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
66%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.9%
- 0–19.0%
- 1–28.8%
- 1–08.1%
- 2–17.9%
Recent form
Cavalier
- 2026-08-21T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-06T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cibao · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-25T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Portmore United · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-21T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Montego Bay United · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-05-17T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Montego Bay United · 0-1 (L)
Portmore United
- 2026-08-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-18T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-25T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 2-2 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2026-04-15T20:30:00.000Z · Cavalier 0-0 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2026-02-01T20:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 0-1 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2025-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · Cavalier 2-4 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2025-05-12T23:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-0 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2025-05-10T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-1 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2025-04-09T21:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-0 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2024-12-29T20:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-1 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2024-09-22T22:30:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-2 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2024-03-18T22:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 0-1 Portmore United (Premier League)
Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Montego Bay United | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 14 |
| 2 | Racing United | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 13 |
| 3 | Waterhouse | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 13 | 12 |
| 4 | Tivoli Gardens | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Tru-Juice | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 6 | Chapelton | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -6 | 8 |
| 7 | Cavalier | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Molynes United | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 6 |
| 9 | Portmore United | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 |
| 10 | Arnett Gardens | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 12 | Dunbeholden | 6 | 1 | 0 | 5 | -9 | 3 |
| 13 | Treasure Beach | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 2 |
| 14 | Humble Lions | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -15 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.