Stadium East · Referee R. Encarnacion · Analysis updated 01:17 UTC
Cavalier vs Portmore United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.62 expected goals for Cavalier and 1.06 for Portmore United, a combined total of 1.68. That distribution gives Portmore United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 24% for over 2.5 goals and 30% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 20%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Portmore United win
45.9% probability
Expected goals
0.62 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cavalier home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Portmore United away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–119.8%
- 0–018.7%
- 1–112.2%
- 1–011.5%
- 0–210.5%
Recent form
Cavalier
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Tivoli Gardens · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-19T22:05:00.000Z · A vs Molynes United · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Montego Bay United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-05T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T20:30:00.000Z · H vs Arnett Gardens · 3-2 (W)
Portmore United
- 2026-08-04T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Salcedo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-25T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalier · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-05-20T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-05-18T00:35:00.000Z · H vs Mount Pleasant Academy · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-14T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing United · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-25T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 2-2 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2026-04-15T20:30:00.000Z · Cavalier 0-0 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2026-02-01T20:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 0-1 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2025-10-12T22:30:00.000Z · Cavalier 2-4 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2025-05-12T23:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-0 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2025-05-10T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-1 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2025-04-09T21:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-0 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2024-12-29T20:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-1 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2024-09-22T22:30:00.000Z · Cavalier 1-2 Portmore United (Premier League)
- 2024-03-18T22:00:00.000Z · Cavalier 0-1 Portmore United (Premier League)
CONCACAF Caribbean Club Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Violette AC | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 2 | Mount Pleasant Academy | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 3 | Portmore United | 5 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 9 |
| 4 | Club Sando | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 5 | Salcedo | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 6 | Delfines Del Este | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 7 | Cibao | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 |
| 8 | Defence Force | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 9 | Cavalier | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 10 | Broki | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Portmore United win, at 45.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 30% and over 2.5 goals at 24%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.