Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.78 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.03 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Cavalry FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cavalry FC win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.78 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cavalry FC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vancouver FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Cavalry FC win55%

Draw23%

Vancouver FC win22%

Double chance 1X

78%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals53%

Over 3.5 goals31%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.1%
1–010.8%
2–19.8%
2–09.6%
0–16.2%

Recent form

Cavalry FC

2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 4-2 (W)
2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-26T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 6-0 (W)

Vancouver FC

2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Forge · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · H vs York United · 3-3 (D)
2026-09-20T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Pacific FC · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-06T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-07-25T02:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 0-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
2026-05-18T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 2-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
2025-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 2-2 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
2025-08-17T23:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 5-4 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
2025-07-14T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 0-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
2025-07-09T01:30:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Championship)
2025-05-22T02:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Championship)
2025-04-18T23:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
2024-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 0-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
2024-07-27T02:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)

Canadian Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Cavalry FC	27	17	6	4	34	57
2	Forge	27	17	6	4	27	57
3	Atlético Ottawa	27	13	4	10	-2	43
4	Vancouver FC	27	10	7	10	3	37
5	Supra du Quebec	27	10	5	12	-4	35
6	HFX Wanderers FC	27	7	7	13	-5	28
7	York United	27	6	9	12	-24	27
8	Pacific FC	27	2	8	17	-29	14

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cavalry FC win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.