ATCO Field · Analysis updated 05:23 UTC
Cavalry FC vs Vancouver FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.93 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.77 for Vancouver FC, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Cavalry FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cavalry FC win
64.5% probability
Expected goals
1.93 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cavalry FC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Vancouver FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
36%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.9%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–110.0%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.0%
Recent form
Cavalry FC
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-3 (L)
Vancouver FC
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Cavalry FC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-17T02:00:00.000Z · H vs HFX Wanderers FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-26T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Forge · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-24T02:00:00.000Z · H vs York United · 3-3 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T02:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 0-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-05-18T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 2-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-10-18T20:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 2-2 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-08-17T23:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 5-4 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-07-14T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 0-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-07-09T01:30:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Championship)
- 2025-05-22T02:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Championship)
- 2025-04-18T23:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-1 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-09-28T23:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 0-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-07-27T02:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-0 Vancouver FC (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 60 |
| 2 | Forge | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 58 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 4 | Supra du Quebec | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 6 | York United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -23 | 30 |
| 7 | HFX Wanderers FC | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 28 | 2 | 9 | 17 | -29 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cavalry FC win, at 64.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.