ATCO Field · Referee C. Shaw-MacLaren · Analysis updated 01:43 UTC
Cavalry FC vs York United Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.33 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 0.78 for York United, a combined total of 3.10. That distribution gives Cavalry FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 72%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 72% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cavalry FC win
72.1% probability
Expected goals
2.33 – 0.78
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cavalry FC home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
York United away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
89%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
28%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–012.2%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.4%
- 3–09.4%
- 1–18.1%
Recent form
Cavalry FC
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Vancouver FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-17T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Pacific FC · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-10-12T20:00:00.000Z · A vs HFX Wanderers FC · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs York United · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-3 (L)
York United
- 2026-10-25T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Ottawa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-16T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Supra du Quebec · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-12T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Forge · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-07T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Supra du Quebec · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Cavalry FC · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-02T01:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 5-0 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-06-10T23:30:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 5-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2026-04-25T21:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-10-26T22:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 4-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-09-05T23:30:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 1-3 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-07-26T21:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 0-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-06-08T22:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 2-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2025-05-03T00:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 2-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-09-21T00:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 2-0 York United (Canadian Premier League)
- 2024-08-17T00:00:00.000Z · Cavalry FC 2-1 York United (Canadian Premier League)
Canadian Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cavalry FC | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | 35 | 60 |
| 2 | Forge | 28 | 17 | 7 | 4 | 27 | 58 |
| 3 | Atlético Ottawa | 28 | 13 | 4 | 11 | -3 | 43 |
| 4 | Supra du Quebec | 28 | 11 | 5 | 12 | -3 | 38 |
| 5 | Vancouver FC | 28 | 10 | 7 | 11 | 2 | 37 |
| 6 | York United | 28 | 7 | 9 | 12 | -23 | 30 |
| 7 | HFX Wanderers FC | 28 | 7 | 7 | 14 | -6 | 28 |
| 8 | Pacific FC | 28 | 2 | 9 | 17 | -29 | 15 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cavalry FC win, at 72.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.