Estadio Francisco Stedile · Referee D. Serafim · Analysis updated 16:54 UTC
Caxias vs Anápolis Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.08 expected goals for Caxias and 0.69 for Anápolis, a combined total of 1.77. That distribution gives Caxias the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 26% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
76.7% probability
Expected goals
1.08 – 0.69
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Caxias home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Anápolis away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Caxias to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 44% / 32% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.08 goals for Caxias and 0.69 for Anápolis, a combined 1.77 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.3%
- 0–017.0%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–111.8%
- 2–09.9%
Recent form
Caxias
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter De Limeira · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-22T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Santa Cruz · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Figueirense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-09T21:30:00.000Z · A vs AO Itabaiana · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-07-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Botafogo PB · 1-2 (L)
Anápolis
- 2026-08-29T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Santa Cruz · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-22T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Confiança · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Floresta · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-10T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Guarani Campinas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-07-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Volta Redonda · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie C table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Botafogo PB | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 9 | 33 |
| 2 | Brusque | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 6 | 32 |
| 3 | Ferroviária | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 30 |
| 4 | Maringá | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 5 | Floresta | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 6 | Inter De Limeira | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 30 |
| 7 | Paysandu | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | -1 | 29 |
| 8 | Santa Cruz | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 29 |
| 9 | Ypiranga-RS | 19 | 8 | 5 | 6 | 3 | 29 |
| 10 | Guarani Campinas | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 10 | 28 |
| 11 | Figueirense | 19 | 7 | 7 | 5 | -3 | 28 |
| 12 | Maranhão | 19 | 7 | 6 | 6 | 1 | 27 |
| 13 | Amazonas | 19 | 7 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 26 |
| 14 | Caxias | 19 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 1 | 25 |
| 15 | Ituano | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | -3 | 22 |
| 16 | Volta Redonda | 19 | 6 | 3 | 10 | -12 | 21 |
| 17 | Barra | 19 | 5 | 6 | 8 | 0 | 21 |
| 18 | Anápolis | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | -5 | 19 |
| 19 | AO Itabaiana | 19 | 4 | 5 | 10 | -13 | 17 |
| 20 | Confiança | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | -9 | 13 |
| 1 | Ferroviária | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 2 | Inter De Limeira | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 3 | Brusque | 6 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 7 |
| 4 | Paysandu | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 1 | Maringá | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 2 | Santa Cruz | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 11 |
| 3 | Floresta | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 4 | Botafogo PB | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 76.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 26%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.