Truman Bodden Stadium · Analysis updated 08:35 UTC
Cayman Islands vs Bahamas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.85 expected goals for Cayman Islands and 0.85 for Bahamas, a combined total of 3.70. That distribution gives Cayman Islands the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cayman Islands win
78.4% probability
Expected goals
2.85 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cayman Islands home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bahamas away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cayman Islands to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 8% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.85 goals for Cayman Islands and 0.85 for Bahamas, a combined 3.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
92%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.0%
- 3–09.5%
- 2–18.5%
- 3–18.1%
- 1–07.0%
Recent form
Cayman Islands
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Guyana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T00:10:00.000Z · H vs Dominica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gibraltar · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahamas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs British Virgin Islands · 1-1 (D)
Bahamas
- 2026-03-30T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Cayman Islands · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-03-26T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-11-15T21:30:00.000Z · H vs British Virgin Islands · 0-6 (L)
- 2025-11-12T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 1-2 (L)
- 2025-06-07T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Costa Rica · 0-8 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Series table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 2 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 10 |
| 3 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 4 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 8 |
| 6 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Belize | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Anguilla | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 6 |
| 11 | Aruba | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 |
| 12 | El Salvador | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 14 | Barbados | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 15 | Martinique | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 2 |
| 16 | Antigua and Barbuda | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 1 |
| 17 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -4 | 1 |
| 18 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -4 | 1 |
| 19 | St. Lucia | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | -5 | 0 |
| 20 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cayman Islands win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.