Windsor Park · Referee S. Bass · Analysis updated 04:59 UTC
Cayman Islands vs Dominica Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.89 expected goals for Cayman Islands and 1.81 for Dominica, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Dominica the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Dominica win
59.1% probability
Expected goals
0.89 – 1.81
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cayman Islands home form
8 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Dominica away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dominica to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 59%, against 18% / 23% / 59% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.89 goals for Cayman Islands and 1.81 for Dominica, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
41%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
82%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–112.2%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–110.8%
- 1–29.8%
- 0–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 2.40 | 39.4% | 40.9% | 2.44 | +1.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.91 | 48.5% | 49.3% | 2.03 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 1.55 | 58.9% | 59.1% | 1.69 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.00 | 22.8% | 22.8% | 4.39 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 5.00 | 18.3% | 18.1% | 5.52 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 77.6% | 77.2% | 1.30 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.80 | 51.5% | 50.7% | 1.97 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.14 | 83.0% | 81.9% | 1.22 | -1.1 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cayman Islands
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Guyana · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T00:10:00.000Z · H vs Dominica · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Gibraltar · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-03-30T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Bahamas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-03-27T00:00:00.000Z · H vs British Virgin Islands · 1-1 (D)
Dominica
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Guyana · 1-8 (L)
- 2026-10-01T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Guyana · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-28T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Puerto Rico · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-25T00:10:00.000Z · A vs Cayman Islands · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Anguilla · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-25T00:10:00.000Z · Cayman Islands 0-0 Dominica (CONCACAF Nations League)
CONCACAF Nations League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guyana | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 14 | 12 |
| 2 | Montserrat | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 12 |
| 3 | St. Vincent / Grenadines | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 12 |
| 4 | Curaçao | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 10 |
| 5 | Barbados | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | Saint Martin | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 17 | 9 |
| 7 | Antigua and Barbuda | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 9 |
| 8 | St. Lucia | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 9 | Puerto Rico | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 10 | Haiti | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 9 |
| 11 | Aruba | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 12 | French Guyana | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 13 | Dominican Republic | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 14 | US Virgin Islands | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 9 |
| 15 | Cuba | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 16 | St. Kitts and Nevis | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 8 |
| 17 | Guatemala | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 |
| 18 | Jamaica | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 19 | Suriname | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 20 | Costa Rica | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 6 |
| 21 | Turks and Caicos Islands | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 |
| 22 | Honduras | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 23 | Martinique | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 24 | Guadeloupe | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 25 | El Salvador | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -6 | 4 |
| 26 | Bonaire | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Belize | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 28 | Grenada | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -8 | 3 |
| 29 | Trinidad and Tobago | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 30 | Cayman Islands | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 1 |
| 31 | Dominica | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -13 | 1 |
| 32 | Bermuda | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 33 | Sint Maarten | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 0 |
| 34 | Nicaragua | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 0 |
| 35 | Anguilla | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 36 | British Virgin Islands | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -11 | 0 |
| 37 | Bahamas | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Dominica win, at 59.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.