Cayón vs Cartes Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Cayón and 1.03 for Cartes, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Cayón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 52%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 52% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Cayón win

52.4% probability

Low confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.03

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Cayón home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cartes away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cayón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 52%, against 52% / 24% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Cayón and 1.03 for Cartes, a combined 2.70 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Cayón win52%

Draw24%

Cartes win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

48%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals51%

Over 3.5 goals29%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

1–111.6%
1–011.3%
2–19.7%
2–09.4%
0–16.9%

Recent form

Cayón

2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mineros · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 0-1 (L)
2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 3-1 (W)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 1-3 (L)

Cartes

2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Noja · 2-2 (D)
2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Castro · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-26T10:15:00.000Z · A vs Cayón · 2-3 (L)
2026-04-18T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Montañas Pas · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Escobedo · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Tropezón	6	6	0	0	10	18
2	Bezana	6	5	1	0	8	16
3	Laredo	6	5	0	1	12	15
4	Sámano	6	3	2	1	8	11
5	Revilla	6	3	2	1	5	11
6	Cayón	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Torina	6	2	4	0	6	10
8	Vimenor	6	3	1	2	2	10
9	Selaya	6	2	1	3	-3	7
10	Atlético Mineros	6	2	0	4	-8	6
11	Guarnizo	6	1	2	3	-3	5
12	Solares	6	1	2	3	-3	5
13	Castro	6	1	2	3	-4	5
14	Escobedo	6	1	2	3	-5	5
15	Atlético Albericia	6	1	1	4	-4	4
16	Velarde	6	1	1	4	-7	4
17	Barquereño	6	1	1	4	-8	4
18	Naval Reinosa	6	0	2	4	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Cayón win, at 52.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.

A 52% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.