· Analysis updated 20:08 UTC
Cayón vs Torina Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.17 expected goals for Cayón and 0.88 for Torina, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Cayón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
72.5% probability
Expected goals
1.17 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cayón home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Torina away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.1%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–111.3%
- 2–08.8%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 11.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.95 (model 59.6% vs market 47.3%, edge +12.3 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.95 | 47.3% | 59.6% | 1.68 | +12.3 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.67 | 56.8% | 57.5% | 1.74 | +0.7 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.00 | 29.8% | 30.0% | 3.33 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Away | 3.25 | 27.5% | 27.5% | 3.64 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.10 | 42.6% | 42.5% | 2.35 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.35 | 70.3% | 70.0% | 1.43 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 73.0% | 72.5% | 1.38 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.75 | 52.7% | 40.4% | 2.48 | -12.3 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Cayón
- 2026-09-19T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Mineros · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Guarnizo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-05-09T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vimenor · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tropezón · 1-3 (L)
Torina
- 2026-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · H vs Sámano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Cayón · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Guarnizo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Vimenor · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Barquereño · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · Cayón 0-0 Torina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2026-03-01T11:00:00.000Z · Cayón 1-2 Torina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2025-10-18T14:45:00.000Z · Cayón 1-1 Torina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2025-02-02T15:30:00.000Z · Cayón 4-1 Torina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2024-09-22T15:30:00.000Z · Cayón 2-1 Torina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2023-01-22T11:00:00.000Z · Cayón 1-0 Torina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
- 2022-09-18T15:00:00.000Z · Cayón 2-1 Torina (Tercera División RFEF - Group 3)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tropezón | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 20 |
| 2 | Laredo | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 13 | 18 |
| 3 | Cayón | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 4 | Bezana | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 5 | Revilla | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Vimenor | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Sámano | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 12 |
| 8 | Torina | 7 | 2 | 5 | 0 | 6 | 11 |
| 9 | Atlético Mineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 10 |
| 10 | Castro | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 11 | Selaya | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 7 |
| 12 | Solares | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 13 | Atlético Albericia | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 6 |
| 14 | Escobedo | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | Guarnizo | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
| 16 | Barquereño | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 17 | Velarde | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Naval Reinosa | 7 | 0 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 72.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 73% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.