Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación · Analysis updated 12:47 UTC
Cazalegas vs Illescas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.85 expected goals for Cazalegas and 1.58 for Illescas, a combined total of 2.43. That distribution gives Illescas the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Illescas win
54.5% probability
Expected goals
0.85 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cazalegas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Illescas away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Illescas to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 20% / 25% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.85 goals for Cazalegas and 1.58 for Illescas, a combined 2.43 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
80%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.9%
- 1–111.8%
- 0–211.0%
- 1–29.3%
- 0–08.8%
Recent form
Cazalegas
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarancón · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pedroñeras · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 0-1 (L)
Illescas
- 2026-10-17T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · H vs La Solana · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Noblejas · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Villarrubia · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintanar del Rey · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-04-05T10:00:00.000Z · Cazalegas 0-1 Illescas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
- 2025-11-22T15:30:00.000Z · Cazalegas 1-1 Illescas (Tercera División RFEF - Group 18)
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Illescas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | CD Villa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Almansa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | San Clemente | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | La Solana | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Quintanar del Rey | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Socuéllamos | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Illescas win, at 54.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.