Ciudad Deportiva Ebora Formación · Analysis updated 00:33 UTC
Cazalegas vs San Clemente Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.87 expected goals for Cazalegas and 1.58 for San Clemente, a combined total of 2.45. That distribution gives San Clemente the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
San Clemente win
53.8% probability
Expected goals
0.87 – 1.58
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cazalegas home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
San Clemente away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates San Clemente to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 21% / 25% / 54% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.87 goals for Cazalegas and 1.58 for San Clemente, a combined 2.45 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
46%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
79%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.6%
- 1–111.9%
- 0–210.7%
- 1–29.4%
- 0–08.6%
Recent form
Cazalegas
- 2026-05-10T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarancón · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pedroñeras · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-26T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Calvo Sotelo · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs San Clemente · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-11T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 0-1 (L)
San Clemente
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Huracán Balazote · 5-3 (W)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Villacañas · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs La Solana · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 8 | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 2 | Toledo | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 3 | Villarrobledo | 8 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 8 | 16 |
| 4 | CD Villa | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Villacañas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 14 |
| 6 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 7 | Illescas | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 8 | Torrijos | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 9 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 10 | San Clemente | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 11 | Almansa | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 11 |
| 12 | Marchamalo | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | Socuéllamos | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 15 | La Solana | 8 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Quintanar del Rey | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 5 |
| 17 | Huracán Balazote | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -11 | 4 |
| 18 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is San Clemente win, at 53.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.