Estadio Armando Dely Valdes · Analysis updated 19:51 UTC
CD Arabe Unido vs Union Cocle Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for CD Arabe Unido and 0.68 for Union Cocle, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives CD Arabe Unido the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 33% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CD Arabe Unido win
46.0% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 0.68
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CD Arabe Unido home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Union Cocle away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Arabe Unido to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 46% / 32% / 22% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.12 goals for CD Arabe Unido and 0.68 for Union Cocle, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
78%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.5%
- 0–016.5%
- 1–112.6%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–010.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 12.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.62 (model 66.8% vs market 57.0%, edge +9.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.62 | 57.0% | 66.8% | 1.50 | +9.8 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 45.5% | 46.0% | 2.17 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.20 | 77.6% | 77.7% | 1.29 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.80 | 31.7% | 31.7% | 3.15 | -0.0 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.73 | 53.9% | 53.9% | 1.86 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.5% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -0.3 |
| Match result | Away | 3.90 | 22.8% | 22.2% | 4.50 | -0.6 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.15 | 43.0% | 33.2% | 3.01 | -9.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
CD Arabe Unido
- 2026-10-18T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Amador · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-04T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Independiente de La Chorrera · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-26T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Herrera · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T01:30:00.000Z · A vs San Francisco FC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Union Cocle · 4-1 (W)
Union Cocle
- 2026-10-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Herrera · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-10-06T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Sporting San Miguelito · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Amador · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-22T01:00:00.000Z · A vs UMECIT · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T01:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Arabe Unido · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Panameña de Fútbol table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 16 | 9 | 4 | 3 | 12 | 31 |
| 2 | Alianza FC | 16 | 6 | 9 | 1 | 6 | 27 |
| 3 | UMECIT | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 8 | 25 |
| 4 | Veraguas | 16 | 7 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 25 |
| 5 | Union Cocle | 16 | 5 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 23 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 16 | 5 | 6 | 5 | 3 | 21 |
| 7 | CD Arabe Unido | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 21 |
| 8 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 16 | 4 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 9 | San Francisco FC | 16 | 5 | 5 | 6 | -3 | 20 |
| 10 | Sporting San Miguelito | 16 | 4 | 6 | 6 | -2 | 18 |
| 11 | Deportivo Universitario | 16 | 3 | 5 | 8 | -8 | 14 |
| 12 | Herrera | 16 | 1 | 5 | 10 | -24 | 8 |
| 1 | Plaza Amador | 13 | 9 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 30 |
| 2 | San Francisco FC | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 23 |
| 3 | CD Arabe Unido | 13 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 23 |
| 4 | UMECIT | 13 | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 20 |
| 5 | Veraguas | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 | Tauro FC | 13 | 5 | 2 | 6 | 4 | 17 |
| 7 | Independiente de La Chorrera | 13 | 4 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 |
| 8 | Alianza FC | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 9 | Sporting San Miguelito | 12 | 3 | 4 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 10 | Deportivo Universitario | 13 | 2 | 5 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Herrera | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 11 |
| 12 | Union Cocle | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -14 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CD Arabe Unido win, at 46.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 33% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.