Estadio Yankel Rosenthal · Analysis updated 09:00 UTC
CD Marathon vs Real Espana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.65 expected goals for CD Marathon and 1.40 for Real Espana, a combined total of 2.05. That distribution gives Real Espana the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 34% for over 2.5 goals and 36% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 18%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Real Espana win
55.2% probability
Expected goals
0.65 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CD Marathon home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Espana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
45%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
83%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–118.0%
- 0–012.9%
- 0–212.6%
- 1–111.7%
- 1–08.4%
Recent form
CD Marathon
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Lobos Upnfm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Juticalpa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs LD Alajuelense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:15:00.000Z · H vs CD Olimpia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:06:00.000Z · H vs LD Alajuelense · 2-2 (D)
Real Espana
- 2026-10-24T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Platense FC · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-16T01:30:00.000Z · A vs CD Olimpia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Estrella Roja · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Motagua · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T23:15:00.000Z · A vs Olancho · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · CD Marathon 1-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-05-19T02:15:00.000Z · CD Marathon 1-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-05-03T21:30:00.000Z · CD Marathon 1-0 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-04-03T01:30:00.000Z · CD Marathon 0-2 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-02-08T21:00:00.000Z · CD Marathon 0-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-10-16T01:30:00.000Z · CD Marathon 0-0 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-08-03T22:00:00.000Z · CD Marathon 0-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-04-06T23:15:00.000Z · CD Marathon 1-0 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-02-08T01:30:00.000Z · CD Marathon 2-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2024-11-03T01:30:00.000Z · CD Marathon 3-0 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 26 |
| 2 | Real Espana | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 10 | 24 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 9 | 22 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Atlético Choloma | 11 | 4 | 1 | 6 | 0 | 13 |
| 6 | Olancho | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 13 |
| 7 | Estrella Roja | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 13 |
| 8 | Lobos Upnfm | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 12 |
| 9 | Génesis | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Atletico Independiente | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Platense FC | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 8 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 11 | 2 | 0 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Real Espana win, at 55.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 36% and over 2.5 goals at 34%.
A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.