Estadio Yankel Rosenthal · Analysis updated 00:06 UTC
CD Marathon vs Victoria Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.09 expected goals for CD Marathon and 1.18 for Victoria, a combined total of 3.27. That distribution gives CD Marathon the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 61% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CD Marathon win
58.3% probability
Expected goals
2.09 – 1.18
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CD Marathon home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Victoria away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Marathon to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 21% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.09 goals for CD Marathon and 1.18 for Victoria, a combined 3.27 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
79%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.8%
- 1–19.4%
- 2–08.3%
- 1–07.9%
- 3–16.8%
Recent form
CD Marathon
- 2026-10-11T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Lobos Upnfm · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-21T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Juticalpa · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-18T00:30:00.000Z · A vs LD Alajuelense · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T23:15:00.000Z · H vs CD Olimpia · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-11T01:06:00.000Z · H vs LD Alajuelense · 2-2 (D)
Victoria
- 2026-05-01T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Espana · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-27T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Génesis · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-22T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Juticalpa · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-20T01:30:00.000Z · A vs Olancho · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-17T01:30:00.000Z · H vs CD Motagua · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Independiente | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CD Marathon win, at 58.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 61% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.