Estadio Nacional Jose de la Paz Herrera Ucles · Referee F. Moron · Analysis updated 15:49 UTC
CD Olimpia vs Deportivo Saprissa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.50 expected goals for CD Olimpia and 1.42 for Deportivo Saprissa, a combined total of 2.93. That distribution gives CD Olimpia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
63.9% probability
Expected goals
1.50 – 1.42
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CD Olimpia home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Saprissa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Olimpia to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 25% / 36% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.50 goals for CD Olimpia and 1.42 for Deportivo Saprissa, a combined 2.93 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
64%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.5%
- 2–18.6%
- 1–28.2%
- 1–08.0%
- 0–17.6%
Recent form
CD Olimpia
- 2026-10-16T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Espana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Génesis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Independiente · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:15:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 0-1 (L)
Deportivo Saprissa
- 2026-10-22T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Firpo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs CS Cartagines · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-16T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Sporting San Jose · 6-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Escorpiones Belén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-20T02:00:00.000Z · H vs CS Herediano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
CONCACAF Central American Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CD Olimpia | 6 | 6 | 0 | 0 | 12 | 18 |
| 2 | LD Alajuelense | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 13 |
| 3 | CD Motagua | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 4 | CS Cartagines | 6 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 12 |
| 5 | Deportivo Saprissa | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 10 |
| 6 | Alianza | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 10 |
| 7 | CD Marathon | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | CS Herediano | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 9 | Firpo | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 10 | Municipal | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 11 | Plaza Amador | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 12 | Mixco | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 13 | Real Estelí | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 6 |
| 14 | FAS | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Xelajú | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 4 |
| 16 | Alianza FC | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Diriangén | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 3 |
| 18 | UMECIT | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -6 | 0 |
| 19 | Antigua GFC | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 0 |
| 20 | Verdes | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 63.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 64% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.