Estadio Nacional Chelato Ucles · Analysis updated 14:39 UTC
CD Olimpia vs Real Espana Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.24 expected goals for CD Olimpia and 1.02 for Real Espana, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives CD Olimpia the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
69.8% probability
Expected goals
1.24 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CD Olimpia home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Real Espana away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
70%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
59%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.2%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–110.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
CD Olimpia
- 2026-10-16T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Espana · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-10T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Génesis · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Independiente · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T03:15:00.000Z · H vs Firpo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T23:15:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 0-1 (L)
Real Espana
- 2026-08-30T23:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Choloma · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-23T21:00:00.000Z · A vs CD Marathon · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-16T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Atletico Independiente · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-09T01:30:00.000Z · H vs Génesis · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-01T01:00:00.000Z · A vs Platense FC · 3-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-13T02:15:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 3-2 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-05-10T02:15:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 1-3 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-04-26T01:00:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 2-3 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2026-03-08T23:15:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 1-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-12-28T01:00:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 1-0 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-12-11T01:00:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 1-0 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-10-26T23:15:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 2-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-08-17T01:30:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 0-0 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-05-25T23:00:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 4-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
- 2025-05-23T02:00:00.000Z · CD Olimpia 2-1 Real Espana (Liga Nacional)
Liga Nacional table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Espana | 9 | 6 | 3 | 0 | 10 | 21 |
| 2 | CD Olimpia | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 20 |
| 3 | CD Marathon | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 18 |
| 4 | CD Motagua | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Olancho | 9 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Génesis | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Atletico Independiente | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 10 |
| 8 | Estrella Roja | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -4 | 9 |
| 9 | Lobos Upnfm | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 10 | Platense FC | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 8 |
| 11 | Atlético Choloma | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -3 | 7 |
| 12 | Juticalpa | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 69.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.