· Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
CD Villa vs Huracán Balazote Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.11 expected goals for CD Villa and 0.89 for Huracán Balazote, a combined total of 3.00. That distribution gives CD Villa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
CD Villa win
65.4% probability
Expected goals
2.11 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Huracán Balazote away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Villa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 65% / 20% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.11 goals for CD Villa and 0.89 for Huracán Balazote, a combined 3.00 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 58% and both teams to score at 52%, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.1%
- 1–010.5%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–19.4%
- 3–07.8%
Recent form
CD Villa
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Socuéllamos · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tarancón · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Guadalajara II · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Marchamalo · 0-2 (L)
Huracán Balazote
- 2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Almansa · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Manchego · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Marchamalo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Villacañas · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarrubia · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 18 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Manchego | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 18 |
| 2 | Torrijos | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Tarancón | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 14 |
| 4 | Illescas | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 14 |
| 5 | Toledo | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 13 |
| 6 | Villarrobledo | 7 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 7 | 13 |
| 7 | Noblejas | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 13 |
| 8 | CD Villa | 7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 9 | Almansa | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 11 |
| 10 | Villacañas | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 11 | Marchamalo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 12 | San Clemente | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 9 |
| 13 | Villarrubia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 14 | La Solana | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 6 |
| 15 | Quintanar del Rey | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 5 |
| 16 | Socuéllamos | 7 | 0 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 4 |
| 17 | Guadalajara II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -14 | 2 |
| 18 | Huracán Balazote | 7 | 0 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CD Villa win, at 65.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.