· Analysis updated 08:37 UTC
CD Zafra vs Atlético Pueblonuevo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.45 expected goals for CD Zafra and 1.06 for Atlético Pueblonuevo, a combined total of 3.51. That distribution gives CD Zafra the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
CD Zafra win
67.7% probability
Expected goals
2.45 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CD Zafra home form
5 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Atlético Pueblonuevo away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CD Zafra to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 68%, against 68% / 18% / 15% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.45 goals for CD Zafra and 1.06 for Atlético Pueblonuevo, a combined 3.51 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
85%
Double chance 12
82%
Double chance X2
32%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.5%
- 2–08.9%
- 1–17.8%
- 3–17.8%
- 1–07.3%
Recent form
CD Zafra
- 2026-10-11T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Montijo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-27T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Llerenense · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Moralo · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T10:15:00.000Z · H vs Atlético Pueblonuevo · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintana · 1-0 (W)
Atlético Pueblonuevo
- 2026-10-25T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Quintana · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Plasencia · 3-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Castuera · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-03T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Puebla Calzada · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Gévora · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 14 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Azuaga | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 12 | 21 |
| 2 | Llerenense | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 8 | 20 |
| 3 | Moralo | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 7 | 18 |
| 4 | Villanovense | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Castuera | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 14 |
| 6 | Puebla Calzada | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 11 |
| 7 | Gévora | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 8 | Jerez | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 11 |
| 9 | Cabeza Buey | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 10 | Villafranca | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 10 |
| 11 | CD Zafra | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Quintana | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 13 | Jaraíz | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 14 | Santa Amalia | 8 | 1 | 5 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 15 | Montijo | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 16 | Plasencia | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -5 | 7 |
| 17 | Atlético Pueblonuevo | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -14 | 3 |
| 18 | Guadiana | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -18 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is CD Zafra win, at 67.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.