· Analysis updated 06:42 UTC
CEAC / Araruama vs Cabofriense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for CEAC / Araruama and 0.85 for Cabofriense, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives CEAC / Araruama the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.1% probability
Expected goals
1.05 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
CEAC / Araruama home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates CEAC / Araruama to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 40% / 32% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for CEAC / Araruama and 0.85 for Cabofriense, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 37%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.7%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–112.7%
- 2–08.2%
Recent form
CEAC / Araruama
- 2026-07-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Boavista SC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-07-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Boavista SC · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-07-08T17:45:00.000Z · H vs São Cristóvão RJ · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-07-04T17:45:00.000Z · H vs Cabofriense · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-06-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Olaria · 1-0 (W)
Cabofriense
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Carioca A2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Americano Campos | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 25 |
| 2 | CFRJ / Maricá | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 24 |
| 3 | Resende | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 4 | América RJ | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 16 |
| 5 | Pérolas Negras | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 16 |
| 6 | São Gonçalo EC RJ | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 1 | 14 |
| 7 | Bonsucesso | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 14 |
| 8 | Olaria | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 13 |
| 9 | Cabofriense | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 12 |
| 10 | CEAC / Araruama | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 11 |
| 11 | Serrano RJ | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Audax Rio | 11 | 3 | 0 | 8 | -7 | 9 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.