Brazil · Serie B · Matchweek 3419:30

19:30 UTC

Saturday, 17 October 2026

Estadio Castelão · Referee Kleber Ariel Goncalves da Silva · Analysis updated 13:41 UTC

Ceara vs Juventude Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Ceara and 1.15 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.18. That distribution gives Juventude the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Draw/Away

67.8% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ceara home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Juventude away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Ceara win32%

Draw29%

Juventude win39%

Double chance 1X

62%

Double chance 12

71%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score44%

Correct score

1–113.4%
0–113.1%
1–011.6%
0–011.4%
1–27.7%

Recent form

Ceara

2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Avai · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Operario-PR · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Novorizontino · 2-1 (W)

Juventude

2026-10-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs São Bernardo · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-07T00:35:00.000Z · A vs Ponte Preta · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-02T23:45:00.000Z · H vs Operario-PR · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-28T22:30:00.000Z · A vs America Mineiro · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Sport Recife · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-06-28T19:00:00.000Z · Ceara 0-2 Juventude (Serie B)
2025-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · Ceara 0-1 Juventude (Serie A)
2025-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Ceara 1-2 Juventude (Serie A)
2023-11-25T20:00:00.000Z · Ceara 1-3 Juventude (Serie B)
2023-07-23T18:30:00.000Z · Ceara 0-1 Juventude (Serie B)
2022-11-13T19:00:00.000Z · Ceara 4-1 Juventude (Serie A)
2022-07-24T19:00:00.000Z · Ceara 0-1 Juventude (Serie A)
2021-10-23T20:00:00.000Z · Ceara 0-0 Juventude (Serie A)
2021-07-04T21:15:00.000Z · Ceara 2-0 Juventude (Serie A)
2017-11-03T21:15:00.000Z · Ceara 0-1 Juventude (Serie B)

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	15	61
2	Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	31	60
3	Juventude	33	17	9	7	18	60
4	Fortaleza EC	33	15	12	6	10	57
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	33	14	11	8	10	53
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	4	52
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	10	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	-6	48
10	Operario-PR	33	13	9	11	-1	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	12	10	11	10	46
13	Athletic Club	33	10	13	10	1	43
14	Nautico Recife	33	11	9	13	-3	42
15	Ceara	33	11	9	13	-5	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	-1	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	-10	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	-7	29
19	America Mineiro	33	4	5	24	-33	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	3	4	26	-55	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.