Brazil · Serie B · Matchweek 2923:30

2 – 1

Friday, 18 September 2026

Estadio Castelão · Referee Bruno Pereira Vasconcelos, Brazil · Analysis updated 16:48 UTC

Ceara vs Novorizontino Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.05 expected goals for Ceara and 1.73 for Novorizontino, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Novorizontino the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Novorizontino win

53.2% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.05 – 1.73

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ceara home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Novorizontino away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Novorizontino to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 23% / 24% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.05 goals for Ceara and 1.73 for Novorizontino, a combined 2.78 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ceara win23%

Draw24%

Novorizontino win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

77%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals77%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score53%

Correct score

1–111.3%
0–110.8%
1–29.7%
0–29.3%
1–06.5%

Recent form

Ceara

2026-10-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-08T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Criciuma · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Avai · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Operario-PR · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · H vs Novorizontino · 2-1 (W)

Novorizontino

2026-09-25T22:30:00.000Z · H vs São Bernardo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T23:30:00.000Z · A vs Ceara · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cuiaba · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-09T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Botafogo SP · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Avai · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie B table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Vila Nova	33	18	7	8	15	61
2	Novorizontino	33	17	9	7	31	60
3	Juventude	33	17	9	7	18	60
4	Fortaleza EC	33	15	12	6	10	57
5	Criciuma	33	16	8	9	6	56
6	Atletico Goianiense	33	14	11	8	10	53
7	CRB	33	15	7	11	4	52
8	Sport Recife	33	13	12	8	10	51
9	Goias	33	14	6	13	-6	48
10	Operario-PR	33	13	9	11	-1	48
11	Cuiaba	33	11	14	8	6	47
12	São Bernardo	33	12	10	11	10	46
13	Athletic Club	33	10	13	10	1	43
14	Nautico Recife	33	11	9	13	-3	42
15	Ceara	33	11	9	13	-5	42
16	Botafogo SP	33	11	8	14	-1	41
17	Avai	33	10	6	17	-10	36
18	Londrina	33	7	8	18	-7	29
19	America Mineiro	33	4	5	24	-33	17
20	Ponte Preta	33	3	4	26	-55	13

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Novorizontino win, at 53.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.