Estadio Miguel Alemán Valdés · Analysis updated 08:00 UTC
Celaya vs Jaguares de Chiapas Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.53 expected goals for Celaya and 1.10 for Jaguares de Chiapas, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Celaya the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celaya win
47.1% probability
Expected goals
1.53 – 1.10
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celaya home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Jaguares de Chiapas away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celaya to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 26% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.53 goals for Celaya and 1.10 for Jaguares de Chiapas, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.1%
- 1–011.0%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–08.4%
- 0–17.9%
Recent form
Celaya
- 2026-08-29T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Pioneros de Cancún · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T02:00:00.000Z · A vs Cimarrones · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-04-23T02:00:00.000Z · H vs Cimarrones · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-18T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Leones Negros · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-16T01:00:00.000Z · H vs Leones Negros · 5-0 (W)
Jaguares de Chiapas
- 2026-10-25T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Reboceros La Piedad · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-17T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Pioneros de Cancún · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-11T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Inter Playa del Carmen · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-06T02:05:00.000Z · A vs Celaya · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T02:05:00.000Z · H vs Racing de Veracruz · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-10-06T02:05:00.000Z · Celaya 0-1 Jaguares de Chiapas (Primera Premier)
- 2026-04-12T01:00:00.000Z · Celaya 1-1 Jaguares de Chiapas (Liga Premier Serie A)
- 2025-11-23T01:00:00.000Z · Celaya 1-0 Jaguares de Chiapas (Liga Premier Serie A)
Liga Premier Serie A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | La Tribu de Cd. Juarez | 9 | 6 | 0 | 3 | 12 | 19 |
| 1 | Dragones de Oaxaca | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 22 |
| 2 | Mineros de Fresnillo | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 11 | 19 |
| 2 | Acambaro | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 19 | 21 |
| 3 | Acatlan | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 19 |
| 3 | Artesanos Metepec | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 21 |
| 4 | Vaqueros Reynosa | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 16 |
| 4 | Delfines Coatzacoalcos | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 15 |
| 5 | Correcaminos UAT II | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 5 | Halcones Negros | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | FC Santiago | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 14 |
| 6 | Guerreros del Pacifico | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Guerreros | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 12 |
| 7 | Calor de San Pedro | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 8 | Atlético Saltillo | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 8 | Real Refineros | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 9 |
| 9 | Real Apodaca | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
| 9 | Ciervos | 9 | 2 | 0 | 7 | -19 | 5 |
| 10 | Héroes de Zaci | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -20 | 2 |
| 10 | Cañoneros Marina | 8 | 0 | 0 | 8 | -26 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celaya win, at 47.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.