Čelik vs Gornji Rahić Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Čelik and 1.15 for Gornji Rahić, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Čelik the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Čelik win

51.4% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.75 – 1.15

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Čelik home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Gornji Rahić away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Čelik to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 24% / 25% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Čelik and 1.15 for Gornji Rahić, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Čelik win51%

Draw24%

Gornji Rahić win25%

Double chance 1X

75%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

49%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.1%
2–19.7%
1–09.6%
2–08.4%
1–26.4%

Recent form

Čelik

2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Zeljeznicar Sarajevo · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Radnik Bijeljina · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs BSK Banja Luka · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-01T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Sloga Doboj · 0-0 (D)

Gornji Rahić

2026-09-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs FK Sarajevo · 0-3 (L)
2025-06-08T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Tuzla City · 1-0 (W)
2025-05-31T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tomislav · 2-1 (W)
2025-05-25T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Goražde · 1-4 (L)
2025-05-21T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Radnički Lukavac · 7-2 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1st League - FBiH table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Posušje	11	8	3	0	10	27
2	Travnik	11	8	1	2	12	25
3	Sloboda Tuzla	11	6	3	2	10	21
4	Stupčanica Olovo	11	6	2	3	13	20
5	GOŠK Gabela	11	6	2	3	7	20
6	Igman Konjic	11	5	4	2	4	19
7	TOŠK Tešanj	11	5	2	4	4	17
8	Bratstvo Gračanica	11	3	5	3	-2	14
9	Jedinstvo Bihać	11	3	4	4	1	13
10	Vitez	11	3	3	5	-5	12
11	Zvijezda Gradačac	11	3	2	6	1	11
12	Radnik Hadžići	11	3	1	7	-6	10
13	Budućnost Banovići	11	2	4	5	-9	10
14	Rudar Kakanj	11	2	2	7	-12	8
15	Čapljina	11	2	2	7	-13	8
16	Tomislav	11	2	2	7	-15	8

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Čelik win, at 51.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.