· Referee R. Obrenovic · Analysis updated 13:36 UTC
Celje vs Maribor Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.02 expected goals for Celje and 1.40 for Maribor, a combined total of 2.42. That distribution gives Maribor the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 44% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Maribor win
45.6% probability
Expected goals
1.02 – 1.40
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celje home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Maribor away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Maribor to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 46%, against 28% / 27% / 46% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.02 goals for Celje and 1.40 for Maribor, a combined 2.42 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
54%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
73%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.7%
- 0–112.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 0–08.9%
- 1–28.9%
Recent form
Celje
- 2026-10-10T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Mura · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bayer Leverkusen · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Bravo · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Koper · 0-1 (L)
Maribor
- 2026-09-19T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Aluminij · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Radomlje · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Mura · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-30T18:15:00.000Z · A vs Nafta · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-23T18:15:00.000Z · H vs Bravo · 3-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
1. SNL table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Maribor | 11 | 6 | 5 | 0 | 12 | 23 |
| 2 | Koper | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 19 |
| 3 | Bravo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 18 |
| 4 | Nafta | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 16 |
| 5 | Olimpija Ljubljana | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 6 | Celje | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 15 |
| 7 | Aluminij | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 | Mura | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -11 | 10 |
| 10 | Radomlje | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -9 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Maribor win, at 45.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 44%.
A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.