Celle Varazze vs Sestri Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.76 expected goals for Celle Varazze and 1.44 for Sestri Levante, a combined total of 2.20. That distribution gives Sestri Levante the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 41% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Sestri Levante win

53.1% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.76 – 1.44

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Celle Varazze home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sestri Levante away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Sestri Levante to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 20% / 27% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.76 goals for Celle Varazze and 1.44 for Sestri Levante, a combined 2.20 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Celle Varazze win20%

Draw27%

Sestri Levante win53%

Double chance 1X

47%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

80%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals65%

Over 2.5 goals38%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score41%

Correct score

0–115.9%
1–112.2%
0–211.4%
0–011.1%
1–28.7%

Recent form

Celle Varazze

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sestri Levante · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Bra · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Chisola · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ligorna · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saluzzo · 1-3 (L)

Sestri Levante

2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampdoria U20 · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanremese · 0-2 (L)
2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 0-1 (L)
2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 1-2 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alessandria	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Biellese	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Derthona	6	3	2	1	1	11
4	Ligorna	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Asti	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Gozzano	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Saluzzo	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Millesimo	6	3	0	3	2	9
9	Chisola	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Imperia	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Lascaris	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Sanremese	6	2	2	2	2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	2	1	3	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Bra	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Valenzana	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Sestri Levante win, at 53.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 41% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.

A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.