· Analysis updated 13:40 UTC
Celoricense vs Tirsense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.82 expected goals for Celoricense and 0.98 for Tirsense, a combined total of 1.80. That distribution gives Tirsense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 33%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 27% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
70.8% probability
Expected goals
0.82 – 0.98
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celoricense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Tirsense away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tirsense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 38%, against 29% / 33% / 38% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.82 goals for Celoricense and 0.98 for Tirsense, a combined 1.80 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
62%
Double chance 12
67%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–016.6%
- 0–116.2%
- 1–013.6%
- 1–113.3%
- 0–27.9%
Recent form
Celoricense
- 2026-09-20T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bragança · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Chaves II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Tirsense · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Pevidem · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Maria da Fonte · 1-0 (W)
Tirsense
- 2026-09-19T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Mafra · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Brito · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Celoricense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Vinhais · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Rebordosa · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campeonato de Portugal Prio - Group A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bragança | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 2 | Tirsense | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 9 |
| 3 | Chaves II | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 9 |
| 4 | SC Braga B | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 8 |
| 5 | Os Limianos | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 |
| 6 | Vila Meã | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 7 |
| 7 | Celoricense | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 7 |
| 8 | Montalegre | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 6 |
| 9 | Rebordosa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 10 | Brito | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 11 | Ponte da Barca | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 3 |
| 12 | Maria da Fonte | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 3 |
| 13 | Maia Lidador | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 1 |
| 14 | Vinhais | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 70.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 27%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.