Municipal de Barreiro · Referee O. Rivera Olmedo · Analysis updated 12:01 UTC
Celta de Vigo II vs Castellón Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.04 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II and 1.70 for Castellón, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Castellón the largest share of the 1X2 market at 53%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 53% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Castellón win
52.8% probability
Expected goals
1.04 – 1.70
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celta de Vigo II home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Castellón away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Castellón to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 53%, against 23% / 24% / 53% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.04 goals for Celta de Vigo II and 1.70 for Castellón, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
47%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 0–111.0%
- 1–29.7%
- 0–29.3%
- 1–06.7%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 7.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Goals — Under 3.5 at 1.40 (model 70.5% vs market 67.3%, edge +3.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5Value | 1.40 | 67.3% | 70.5% | 1.42 | +3.2 |
| Both teams to score | No | 2.05 | 44.6% | 47.2% | 2.12 | +2.6 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 46.9% | 48.4% | 2.07 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Away | 1.81 | 51.5% | 52.8% | 1.89 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Home | 4.20 | 22.2% | 23.1% | 4.33 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.22 | 76.2% | 76.8% | 1.30 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.22 | 76.2% | 75.9% | 1.32 | -0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.95 | 47.7% | 47.1% | 2.12 | -0.6 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.77 | 53.1% | 51.6% | 1.94 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.55 | 26.3% | 24.0% | 4.17 | -2.3 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.65 | 55.4% | 52.8% | 1.89 | -2.6 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 2.88 | 32.7% | 29.5% | 3.39 | -3.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Celta de Vigo II
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-1 (D)
Castellón
- 2026-10-17T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Las Palmas · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs FC Andorra · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs AD Ceuta FC · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-28T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Leganes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 5-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Castellón | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 18 | 26 |
| 2 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 11 | 6 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 19 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 11 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Tenerife | 11 | 3 | 5 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Eldense | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -2 | 14 |
| 14 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 18 | Cadiz | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 0 | 10 |
| 19 | FC Andorra | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 20 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 11 | 1 | 2 | 8 | -15 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 11 | 1 | 1 | 9 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Castellón win, at 52.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 53% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.