Estadio Abanca Balaídos · Referee J. Sanchez · Analysis updated 17:48 UTC
Celta de Vigo II vs FC Andorra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II and 1.56 for FC Andorra, a combined total of 3.44. That distribution gives Celta de Vigo II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 67% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celta de Vigo II win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.88 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celta de Vigo II home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
FC Andorra away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celta de Vigo II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 22% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.88 goals for Celta de Vigo II and 1.56 for FC Andorra, a combined 3.44 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.4%
- 2–18.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–26.9%
- 1–06.0%
Recent form
Celta de Vigo II
- 2026-10-24T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Girona · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-10-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Tenerife · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-1 (D)
FC Andorra
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Castellón · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Sabadell · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-26T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Granada CF · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Sporting Gijon · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 1-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Almeria | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 25 |
| 2 | Castellón | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 14 | 23 |
| 3 | Eibar | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 22 |
| 4 | Girona | 11 | 6 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 21 |
| 5 | Granada CF | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 20 |
| 6 | Mallorca | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 7 | 19 |
| 7 | Sporting Gijon | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 19 |
| 8 | Oviedo | 11 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 18 |
| 9 | Burgos | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 10 | Sabadell | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 16 |
| 11 | Cordoba | 11 | 5 | 0 | 6 | -3 | 15 |
| 12 | Eldense | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 13 | Las Palmas | 11 | 4 | 2 | 5 | -5 | 14 |
| 14 | Tenerife | 10 | 3 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 13 |
| 15 | Valladolid | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo II | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -5 | 12 |
| 17 | Leganes | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 12 |
| 18 | FC Andorra | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -4 | 10 |
| 19 | Real Sociedad II | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 8 |
| 20 | Cadiz | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 7 |
| 21 | AD Ceuta FC | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 5 |
| 22 | Albacete | 10 | 0 | 1 | 9 | -16 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celta de Vigo II win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 67%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.