Municipal de Barreiro · Analysis updated 16:53 UTC
Celta de Vigo II vs Lugo Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.85 expected goals for Celta de Vigo II and 0.95 for Lugo, a combined total of 2.80. That distribution gives Celta de Vigo II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 59%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 59% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celta de Vigo II win
58.5% probability
Expected goals
1.85 – 0.95
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celta de Vigo II home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lugo away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 9 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–011.2%
- 1–110.7%
- 2–010.4%
- 2–19.9%
- 3–06.4%
Recent form
Celta de Vigo II
- 2026-10-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Sociedad II · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Sporting Gijon · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-26T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Sabadell · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Almeria · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Eibar · 0-4 (L)
Lugo
- 2026-09-20T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Zamora · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:15:00.000Z · H vs CD Coria · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:15:00.000Z · A vs Ponferradina · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-08-30T17:15:00.000Z · A vs Unionistas de Salamanca · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-21T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Ourense CF · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-07-25T17:00:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 1-1 Lugo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2026-05-17T15:00:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 0-1 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-10-18T16:30:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 0-2 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2025-03-19T18:00:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 1-2 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-10-19T15:30:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 0-1 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-08-03T17:30:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 1-0 Lugo (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2024-04-14T17:00:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 4-1 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2024-01-02T18:00:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 1-0 Lugo (Primera División RFEF - Group 1)
- 2023-08-15T17:00:00.000Z · Celta de Vigo II 0-1 Lugo (Friendlies Clubs)
Primera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lugo | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | UD Logroñés | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 3 | Racing Ferrol | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 4 | Mérida AD | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 5 | Athletic Club II | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 12 |
| 6 | Zamora | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 7 | Cultural Leonesa | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 8 | Cacereño | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 12 |
| 9 | Ponferradina | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Real Avilés | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 11 |
| 11 | Pontevedra | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 12 | Mirandes | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 13 | Real Unión | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 10 |
| 14 | Extremadura 1924 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 15 | Barakaldo | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 9 |
| 16 | Deportivo La Coruña II | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 8 |
| 17 | CD Coria | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 8 |
| 18 | Unionistas de Salamanca | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 7 |
| 19 | UD Ourense | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 5 |
| 20 | Arenas Getxo | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | -17 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celta de Vigo II win, at 58.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 59% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.