Celta Vigo vs Elche Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.10 for Elche, a combined total of 2.55. That distribution gives Celta Vigo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Celta Vigo win

45.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.45 – 1.10

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Celta Vigo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Elche away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Celta Vigo win45%

Draw26%

Elche win29%

Double chance 1X

71%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals72%

Over 2.5 goals47%

Over 3.5 goals25%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.5%
1–011.3%
2–19.0%
0–18.6%
2–08.2%

Recent form

Celta Vigo

2026-10-18T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-1 (L)

Elche

2026-10-17T14:15:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 0-0 (D)
2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Espanyol · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-15T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Real Madrid · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-12T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Athletic Club · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-05-03T12:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 3-1 Elche (La Liga)
2025-09-28T14:15:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-2 Elche (La Liga)
2023-04-26T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche (La Liga)
2023-01-06T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche (La Liga)
2022-05-15T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche (La Liga)
2021-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-1 Elche (La Liga)
2021-02-12T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 3-1 Elche (La Liga)
2020-11-06T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-1 Elche (La Liga)
2015-03-02T19:45:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-1 Elche (La Liga)
2014-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Elche (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	9	9	0	0	30	27
2	Atletico Madrid	9	7	1	1	11	22
3	Real Madrid	9	7	0	2	14	21
4	Real Betis	9	6	1	2	2	19
5	Real Sociedad	9	5	1	3	0	16
6	Sevilla	9	4	2	3	-2	14
7	Alaves	9	3	2	4	3	11
8	Celta Vigo	9	2	5	2	3	11
9	Deportivo La Coruna	9	2	5	2	1	11
10	Osasuna	9	3	2	4	-8	11
11	Levante	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Villarreal	9	2	3	4	0	9
13	Athletic Club	8	2	3	3	-1	9
14	Rayo Vallecano	8	2	3	3	-5	9
15	Getafe	9	2	3	4	-6	9
16	Espanyol	9	2	2	5	-1	8
17	Racing Santander	9	2	2	5	-12	8
18	Elche	9	1	4	4	-6	7
19	Valencia	9	1	3	5	-9	6
20	Malaga	9	0	4	5	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Celta Vigo win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.

A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.