Municipal de Balaídos · Referee Carlos Muniz Munoz, Spain · Analysis updated 15:20 UTC
Celta Vigo vs Malaga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.43 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.90 for Malaga, a combined total of 2.33. That distribution gives Celta Vigo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celta Vigo win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.43 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celta Vigo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Malaga away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.5%
- 2–09.9%
- 0–09.8%
- 2–18.9%
Recent form
Celta Vigo
- 2026-10-18T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-1 (L)
Malaga
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:30:00.000Z · H vs Villarreal · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Celta Vigo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Levante · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-1 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2018-03-18T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2017-10-29T19:45:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-2 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2017-05-07T18:45:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-3 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2017-01-08T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 3-1 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2016-05-08T15:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2016-01-02T21:05:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-2 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2015-04-29T18:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2014-12-13T21:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-1 Malaga (La Liga)
- 2014-03-21T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-2 Malaga (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 22 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 11 |
| 8 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 10 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 11 | Athletic Club | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 9 |
| 12 | Villarreal | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Espanyol | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -1 | 8 |
| 14 | Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 15 | Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 16 | Racing Santander | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -12 | 8 |
| 17 | Levante | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -4 | 7 |
| 18 | Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 19 | Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | -9 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celta Vigo win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.