Municipal de Balaídos · Referee Miguel Sesma Espinosa, Spain · Analysis updated 15:28 UTC
Celta Vigo vs Osasuna Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.46 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 0.89 for Osasuna, a combined total of 2.35. That distribution gives Celta Vigo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Celta Vigo win
50.5% probability
Expected goals
1.46 – 0.89
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celta Vigo home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Osasuna away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
77%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
50%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.9%
- 1–112.4%
- 2–010.2%
- 0–09.5%
- 2–19.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | No | 1.75 | 53.3% | 54.8% | 1.82 | +1.5 |
| Match result | Home | 1.90 | 49.3% | 50.5% | 1.98 | +1.2 |
| Match result | Away | 4.20 | 22.3% | 23.0% | 4.35 | +0.7 |
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.20 | 78.3% | 78.9% | 1.27 | +0.6 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.22 | 76.6% | 77.1% | 1.30 | +0.5 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.28 | 73.0% | 73.5% | 1.36 | +0.5 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 1.62 | 58.1% | 58.3% | 1.72 | +0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 2.25 | 41.9% | 41.7% | 2.40 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 4.33 | 21.7% | 21.1% | 4.74 | -0.6 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.85 | 50.5% | 49.6% | 2.02 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.7% | 45.2% | 2.21 | -1.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.30 | 28.4% | 26.6% | 3.76 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Celta Vigo
- 2026-10-22T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Celtic · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Alaves · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Juventus · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 5-0 (W)
Osasuna
- 2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-09-19T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Rayo Vallecano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Madrid · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:15:00.000Z · H vs Espanyol · 0-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-02-06T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2025-10-26T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 3-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2025-02-21T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2024-09-01T15:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 2-3 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2024-02-04T15:15:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 3-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2023-08-13T15:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2023-03-06T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2022-11-05T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-2 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2022-01-19T18:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 2-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
- 2021-08-23T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-0 Osasuna (La Liga)
La Liga table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 30 | 27 |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 25 |
| 3 | Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 14 | 21 |
| 4 | Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 19 |
| 5 | Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 16 |
| 6 | Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 14 |
| 7 | Alaves | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 12 |
| 8 | Villarreal | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Celta Vigo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 11 |
| 10 | Deportivo La Coruna | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Osasuna | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 11 |
| 12 | Racing Santander | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -11 | 11 |
| 13 | Levante | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 14 | Elche | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 15 | Athletic Club | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
| 16 | Getafe | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 9 |
| 17 | Rayo Vallecano | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 9 |
| 18 | Espanyol | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -2 | 8 |
| 19 | Valencia | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 20 | Malaga | 10 | 0 | 5 | 5 | -12 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Celta Vigo win, at 50.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.