Celta Vigo vs Real Betis Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.60 expected goals for Celta Vigo and 1.25 for Real Betis, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Celta Vigo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 46%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 46% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Celta Vigo win

45.5% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.60 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Celta Vigo home form
4 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Real Betis away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 7 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Celta Vigo win46%

Draw25%

Real Betis win30%

Double chance 1X

70%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

55%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.6%
2–19.3%
1–09.3%
2–07.4%
0–17.2%

Recent form

Celta Vigo

2026-10-11T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Elche · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-19T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Racing Santander · 5-0 (W)
2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · A vs Omonia Nicosia · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Malaga · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Getafe · 1-1 (D)

Real Betis

2026-10-11T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Osasuna · 5-2 (W)
2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo La Coruna · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-17T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Getafe · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-14T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Villarreal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 3-2 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-03-15T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
2025-08-27T19:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
2025-02-08T13:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 3-2 Real Betis (La Liga)
2024-11-10T13:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 2-2 Real Betis (La Liga)
2024-04-12T19:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-2 Real Betis (La Liga)
2024-01-03T18:15:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 2-1 Real Betis (La Liga)
2023-02-04T20:00:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 4-3 Real Betis (La Liga)
2022-10-02T14:15:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 1-0 Real Betis (La Liga)
2022-03-20T15:15:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 0-0 Real Betis (La Liga)
2022-01-02T17:30:00.000Z · Celta Vigo 2-0 Real Betis (La Liga)

La Liga table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Barcelona	8	8	0	0	27	24
2	Atletico Madrid	8	6	1	1	10	19
3	Real Betis	8	6	1	1	5	19
4	Real Madrid	8	6	0	2	11	18
5	Sevilla	8	4	2	2	1	14
6	Real Sociedad	8	4	1	3	-3	13
7	Alaves	8	3	2	3	4	11
8	Deportivo La Coruna	8	2	4	2	1	10
9	Celta Vigo	8	1	5	2	2	8
10	Athletic Club	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Villarreal	8	2	2	4	0	8
12	Espanyol	8	2	2	4	0	8
13	Rayo Vallecano	7	2	2	3	-5	8
14	Getafe	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Racing Santander	8	2	2	4	-10	8
16	Osasuna	8	2	2	4	-10	8
17	Levante	7	1	3	3	-4	6
18	Elche	8	1	3	4	-6	6
19	Valencia	8	1	2	5	-9	5
20	Malaga	8	0	4	4	-9	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Celta Vigo win, at 45.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 46% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.