Estadio Salvador Otero · Analysis updated 17:43 UTC
Celtiga vs Villalbés Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Celtiga and 1.02 for Villalbés, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Celtiga the largest share of the 1X2 market at 39%, with the draw at 29%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 39% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.1% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Celtiga home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Villalbés away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Celtiga to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 39%, against 39% / 29% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Celtiga and 1.02 for Villalbés, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
68%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
61%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.1%
- 0–111.5%
- 0–011.2%
- 2–17.8%
Recent form
Celtiga
- 2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Somozas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Celta de Vigo III · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T15:30:00.000Z · H vs Alondras · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-04T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Viveiro · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Estradense · 2-0 (W)
Villalbés
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Viveiro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Estradense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Silva · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-27T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Boiro · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Celtiga · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Boiro | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 16 |
| 2 | Sarriana | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 14 |
| 3 | Lalin | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 13 |
| 4 | Barco | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 12 |
| 5 | Antela | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 12 |
| 6 | Portonovo SD | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 7 | Silva | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 8 | Villalbés | 7 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 10 |
| 9 | Alondras | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 | Celtiga | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Estradense | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 10 |
| 12 | Atlético Arteixo | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 13 | Coruña | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 14 | Pontevedra II | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 7 |
| 15 | Somozas | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 16 | Celta de Vigo III | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 7 |
| 17 | Viveiro | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 5 |
| 18 | Arenteiro | 7 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.
A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.