Atthows Park · Analysis updated 15:10 UTC
Centenary Stormers vs Newmarket Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.93 expected goals for Centenary Stormers and 2.72 for Newmarket, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Newmarket the largest share of the 1X2 market at 75%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 71% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 75% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Newmarket win
74.9% probability
Expected goals
0.93 – 2.72
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Centenary Stormers home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Newmarket away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Newmarket to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 75%, against 10% / 15% / 75% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.93 goals for Centenary Stormers and 2.72 for Newmarket, a combined 3.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
25%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
90%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–29.6%
- 1–28.9%
- 0–38.7%
- 1–38.1%
- 0–17.0%
Recent form
Centenary Stormers
- 2025-08-26T10:30:00.000Z · H vs Virginia United · 1-0 (W)
- 2025-08-23T08:00:00.000Z · A vs North Brisbane · 2-4 (L)
- 2025-08-19T10:30:00.000Z · A vs Springfield United · 1-3 (L)
- 2025-08-16T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Mt Gravatt · 1-5 (L)
- 2025-08-09T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Newmarket · 0-2 (L)
Newmarket
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Leighton Town · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Gorleston · 5-2 (W)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Canvey Island · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Canvey Island · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haringey Borough · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Brisbane Premier League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Newmarket | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 22 |
| 2 | Springfield United | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 22 |
| 3 | Virginia United | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 21 | 21 |
| 4 | North Pine | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 19 |
| 5 | Mt Gravatt | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 8 | 15 |
| 6 | Carina | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 |
| 7 | Ipswich Knights | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 15 |
| 8 | Yeronga Eagles | 9 | 4 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 12 |
| 9 | Redcliffe Dolphins | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -7 | 10 |
| 10 | North Brisbane | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -11 | 6 |
| 11 | Univ. Queensland | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -9 | 4 |
| 12 | Centenary Stormers | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -15 | 4 |
| 13 | Bayside United | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 | -28 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Newmarket win, at 74.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 71%.
A 75% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.