Central Coast Mariners vs Perth Glory Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.23 for Perth Glory, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Central Coast Mariners the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Central Coast Mariners win

47.9% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.67 – 1.23

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Central Coast Mariners home form
3 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Perth Glory away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Central Coast Mariners to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 24% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Central Coast Mariners and 1.23 for Perth Glory, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Central Coast Mariners win48%

Draw24%

Perth Glory win28%

Double chance 1X

72%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

52%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.3%
2–19.5%
1–09.2%
2–07.7%
1–26.9%

Recent form

Central Coast Mariners

2026-09-12T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu United · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-09T04:00:00.000Z · A vs Vanuatu United · 2-3 (L)
2026-07-22T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Sydney United · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-25T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Newcastle Jets · 0-4 (L)
2026-04-19T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland · 1-0 (W)

Perth Glory

2026-09-27T04:00:00.000Z · H vs Adelaide United · 2-0 (W)
2026-07-21T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 1-1 (D)
2026-04-25T11:45:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane Roar · 2-1 (W)
2026-04-18T09:35:00.000Z · A vs Sydney · 0-0 (D)
2026-04-12T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Macarthur · 3-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

A-League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Adelaide United	0	0	0	0	0	0
2	Central Coast Mariners	0	0	0	0	0	0
3	Newcastle Jets	0	0	0	0	0	0
4	Perth Glory	0	0	0	0	0	0
5	Brisbane Roar	0	0	0	0	0	0
6	Sydney	0	0	0	0	0	0
7	Wellington Phoenix	0	0	0	0	0	0
8	Melbourne Victory	0	0	0	0	0	0
9	Melbourne City	0	0	0	0	0	0
10	Western Sydney Wanderers	0	0	0	0	0	0
11	Macarthur	0	0	0	0	0	0
12	Auckland	0	0	0	0	0	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Central Coast Mariners win, at 47.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.