Churchill Park · Analysis updated 05:00 UTC
Central Coast vs Auckland City Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Central Coast and 1.49 for Auckland City, a combined total of 3.21. That distribution gives Central Coast the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 62% for over 2.5 goals and 64% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
66.6% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 1.49
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Central Coast home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Auckland City away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Central Coast to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Central Coast and 1.49 for Auckland City, a combined 3.21 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.4%
- 2–18.9%
- 1–27.7%
- 1–07.0%
- 2–26.6%
Recent form
Central Coast
- 2026-08-22T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Auckland City · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-19T07:00:00.000Z · A vs ABM Galaxy · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-08-16T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiga Sport · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-13T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Vénus · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Auckland City · 1-2 (L)
Auckland City
- 2026-08-22T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Coast · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-08-19T03:00:00.000Z · H vs Rewa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-16T00:00:00.000Z · H vs Vénus · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-08-13T00:00:00.000Z · A vs Tiga Sport · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-10T03:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Coast · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 66.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 64% and over 2.5 goals at 62%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.