Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades · Referee P. Echavarria · Analysis updated 15:06 UTC
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Defensa Y Justicia Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.97 expected goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago and 0.93 for Defensa Y Justicia, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Central Cordoba de Santiago the largest share of the 1X2 market at 35%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 38% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 35% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
0.97 – 0.93
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Central Cordoba de Santiago home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensa Y Justicia away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 8 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
68%
Double chance X2
65%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–015.0%
- 1–014.5%
- 0–113.9%
- 1–113.5%
- 2–07.0%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.9%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.73 (model 62.4% vs market 53.6%, edge +8.8 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.73 | 53.6% | 62.4% | 1.60 | +8.8 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 66.6% | 67.0% | 1.49 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 32.8% | 33.0% | 3.03 | +0.2 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.44 | 64.8% | 64.8% | 1.54 | 0.0 |
| Match result | Home | 2.60 | 35.3% | 35.2% | 2.84 | -0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.88 | 31.9% | 31.8% | 3.14 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 68.6% | 68.2% | 1.47 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.00 | 46.4% | 37.6% | 2.66 | -8.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 0-0 (D)
Defensa Y Justicia
- 2026-10-10T00:45:00.000Z · A vs Union Santa Fe · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T17:45:00.000Z · H vs San Lorenzo · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · A vs Central Cordoba de Santiago · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-11T22:15:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-2 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2026-03-12T20:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-1 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-07-28T21:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-1 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-02-03T20:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-2 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-08-11T18:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-02-20T23:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-1 Defensa Y Justicia (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-09-24T00:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-1 Defensa Y Justicia (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-04-08T23:30:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-1 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-08-08T14:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-0 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2021-09-03T22:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-1 Defensa Y Justicia (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 38% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.