Estadio Unico Madre de Ciudades · Referee A. Gariano · Analysis updated 20:33 UTC
Central Cordoba de Santiago vs Estudiantes L.P. Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.84 expected goals for Central Cordoba de Santiago and 1.06 for Estudiantes L.P., a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Estudiantes L.P. the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 32%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
71.6% probability
Expected goals
0.84 – 1.06
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Central Cordoba de Santiago home form
4 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Estudiantes L.P. away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
72%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–115.9%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.3%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–28.4%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 8.7%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.67 (model 62.9% vs market 55.7%, edge +7.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.67 | 55.7% | 62.9% | 1.59 | +7.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.62 | 58.2% | 59.9% | 1.67 | +1.7 |
| Match result | Home | 3.25 | 28.3% | 28.4% | 3.52 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Away | 2.30 | 40.0% | 40.1% | 2.49 | +0.1 |
| Match result | Draw | 2.90 | 31.7% | 31.5% | 3.17 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.36 | 69.3% | 68.5% | 1.46 | -0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.30 | 72.5% | 71.6% | 1.40 | -0.9 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 2.10 | 44.3% | 37.1% | 2.70 | -7.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Central Cordoba de Santiago
- 2026-10-05T19:45:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Riestra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-18T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Defensa Y Justicia · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Boca Juniors · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-06T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Independiente · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-30T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Talleres Cordoba · 0-0 (D)
Estudiantes L.P.
- 2026-10-05T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Gimnasia M. · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Platense · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosario Central · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-22T00:15:00.000Z · A vs Lanus · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Corinthians · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-23T22:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 0-5 Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-11-30T00:30:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 0-1 Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-08-30T20:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-0 Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2025-02-21T22:15:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-3 Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-11-10T19:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-1 Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2024-07-17T21:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-1 Estudiantes L.P. (Copa Argentina)
- 2024-04-07T22:15:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 0-5 Estudiantes L.P. (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-11-10T22:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 0-1 Estudiantes L.P. (Copa de la Liga Profesional)
- 2023-07-01T22:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 1-1 Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
- 2022-07-10T16:00:00.000Z · Central Cordoba de Santiago 2-2 Estudiantes L.P. (Liga Profesional Argentina)
Liga Profesional Argentina table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 71.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.