· Analysis updated 14:53 UTC
Central SC vs Maguary PE Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.64 expected goals for Central SC and 0.62 for Maguary PE, a combined total of 1.26. That distribution gives Central SC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 30%, with the draw at 41%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 13% for over 2.5 goals and 22% for both teams to score, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 30% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.0% probability
Expected goals
0.64 – 0.62
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Maguary PE away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates the draw the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 30% / 41% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.64 goals for Central SC and 0.62 for Maguary PE, a combined 1.26 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 13% and both teams to score at 22%, with 0–0 the single most likely scoreline at 28%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
59%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–028.3%
- 1–018.1%
- 0–117.6%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–05.8%
Recent form
Central SC
Maguary PE
- 2026-07-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Iguatu · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-07-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Iguatu · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-06-27T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Piauí · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-21T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Piauí · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-14T18:00:00.000Z · A vs ABC · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 22% and over 2.5 goals at 13%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.