Jan Breydel Stadion · Referee K. van Damme · Analysis updated 14:33 UTC
Cercle Brugge vs Anderlecht Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.88 expected goals for Cercle Brugge and 1.35 for Anderlecht, a combined total of 2.22. That distribution gives Anderlecht the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 38% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Anderlecht win
47.8% probability
Expected goals
0.88 – 1.35
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cercle Brugge home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Anderlecht away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
52%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
76%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–114.6%
- 1–112.8%
- 0–010.8%
- 0–29.8%
- 1–09.5%
Recent form
Cercle Brugge
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Anderlecht · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T16:15:00.000Z · A vs Charleroi · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · A vs OH Leuven · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-06T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Gent · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Lommel United · 0-1 (L)
Anderlecht
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Brugge · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reims · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Lyon · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-11T18:45:00.000Z · A vs KV Mechelen · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-03-22T17:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 3-2 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-08-03T14:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 0-2 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2025-03-16T17:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 0-3 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-11-10T12:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 0-5 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-04-28T14:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 1-1 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2024-04-24T18:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 0-3 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-12-27T19:45:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 0-2 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-11-05T12:30:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 0-3 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2023-03-12T18:15:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 0-2 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
- 2022-07-30T14:00:00.000Z · Cercle Brugge 1-0 Anderlecht (Jupiler Pro League)
Jupiler Pro League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 22 |
| 2 | Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 15 | 21 |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 21 |
| 4 | Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 18 | 20 |
| 5 | Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 13 |
| 7 | Genk | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 8 | Zulte Waregem | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 10 | Lommel United | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | SK Beveren | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 9 |
| 12 | St. Truiden | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 13 | Antwerp | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 14 | KV Mechelen | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 15 | OH Leuven | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 5 |
| 16 | RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -10 | 4 |
| 17 | Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | -16 | 3 |
| 18 | Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Anderlecht win, at 47.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 38%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.