· Analysis updated 02:43 UTC
Cercle Mbéri vs Ogooue FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cercle Mbéri and 0.85 for Ogooue FC, a combined total of 2.03. That distribution gives Cercle Mbéri the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 33% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.5% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 0.85
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cercle Mbéri home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Ogooue FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cercle Mbéri to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 30% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Cercle Mbéri and 0.85 for Ogooue FC, a combined 2.03 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–015.5%
- 0–013.2%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–111.2%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
Cercle Mbéri
- 2026-07-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Lozo · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-30T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Ogooue FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-27T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Bouenguidi · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-20T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Pélican · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-06-14T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Bitam · 1-1 (D)
Ogooue FC
- 2026-07-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Bitam · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-06-30T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Cercle Mbéri · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-06-27T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Oyem AC · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-06-20T14:30:00.000Z · A vs FC 105 · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-06-13T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Mangasport · 2-1 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-06-30T14:30:00.000Z · Cercle Mbéri 1-0 Ogooue FC (Championnat D1)
- 2026-05-05T14:30:00.000Z · Cercle Mbéri 0-3 Ogooue FC (Championnat D1)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 33%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.