Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium · Referee Koei Koya · Analysis updated 11:19 UTC
Cerezo Osaka vs JEF United Chiba Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.51 expected goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.03 for JEF United Chiba, a combined total of 2.54. That distribution gives Cerezo Osaka the largest share of the 1X2 market at 48%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 47% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 48% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cerezo Osaka win
48.4% probability
Expected goals
1.51 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cerezo Osaka home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
JEF United Chiba away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cerezo Osaka to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 48%, against 48% / 26% / 26% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.51 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.03 for JEF United Chiba, a combined 2.54 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.3%
- 1–011.9%
- 2–19.3%
- 2–09.0%
- 0–18.1%
Recent form
Cerezo Osaka
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Kagoshima United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs V-varen Nagasaki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-6 (L)
JEF United Chiba
- 2026-10-11T05:00:00.000Z · H vs V-varen Nagasaki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fagiano Okayama · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Jubilo Iwata · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Shimizu S-pulse · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Tokyo Verdy · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Machida Zelvia | 12 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 20 | 27 |
| 2 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 19 | 26 |
| 3 | Kashiwa Reysol | 12 | 8 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 25 |
| 4 | FC Tokyo | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 13 | 24 |
| 5 | Vissel Kobe | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 7 | 23 |
| 6 | Kashima | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 20 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 12 | 4 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 |
| 9 | Urawa | 11 | 6 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 18 |
| 10 | Fagiano Okayama | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -1 | 16 |
| 11 | Nagoya Grampus | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -4 | 14 |
| 12 | Shimizu S-pulse | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -10 | 14 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | -7 | 13 |
| 14 | V-varen Nagasaki | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 12 |
| 15 | Gamba Osaka | 12 | 2 | 5 | 5 | -7 | 11 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 12 | 2 | 4 | 6 | -8 | 10 |
| 17 | Mito Hollyhock | 11 | 2 | 3 | 6 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Tokyo Verdy | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -12 | 8 |
| 19 | Avispa Fukuoka | 12 | 2 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 7 |
| 20 | JEF United Chiba | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | -12 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cerezo Osaka win, at 48.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 47%.
A 48% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.