Yanmar Hanasaka Stadium · Referee Masuya Ueda, Japan · Analysis updated 17:01 UTC
Cerezo Osaka vs Kawasaki Frontale Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.33 for Kawasaki Frontale, a combined total of 2.50. That distribution gives Kawasaki Frontale the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 46% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cerezo Osaka home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Kawasaki Frontale away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kawasaki Frontale to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Cerezo Osaka and 1.33 for Kawasaki Frontale, a combined 2.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–110.9%
- 1–09.6%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.2%
Recent form
Cerezo Osaka
- 2026-10-10T05:00:00.000Z · H vs Yokohama F. Marinos · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Kagoshima United · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-29T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Fujieda MYFC · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T09:30:00.000Z · A vs V-varen Nagasaki · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanfrecce Hiroshima · 1-6 (L)
Kawasaki Frontale
- 2026-09-19T09:00:00.000Z · H vs Kashima · 3-3 (D)
- 2026-09-12T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Mito Hollyhock · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Shimizu S-pulse · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Machida Zelvia · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-29T10:00:00.000Z · H vs JEF United Chiba · 4-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
J1 League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sanfrecce Hiroshima | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 19 | 23 |
| 2 | Machida Zelvia | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 15 | 23 |
| 3 | FC Tokyo | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 23 |
| 4 | Vissel Kobe | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 5 | Kashiwa Reysol | 10 | 7 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 21 |
| 6 | Kashima | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 19 |
| 7 | Kawasaki Frontale | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 16 |
| 8 | Yokohama F. Marinos | 10 | 4 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 16 |
| 9 | Urawa | 10 | 5 | 0 | 5 | -4 | 15 |
| 10 | Shimizu S-pulse | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 14 |
| 11 | Fagiano Okayama | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 12 | Nagoya Grampus | 10 | 4 | 0 | 6 | -4 | 12 |
| 13 | Cerezo Osaka | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -7 | 12 |
| 14 | Mito Hollyhock | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 9 |
| 15 | V-varen Nagasaki | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
| 16 | Kyoto Sanga | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Avispa Fukuoka | 10 | 2 | 1 | 7 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Gamba Osaka | 10 | 1 | 4 | 5 | -8 | 7 |
| 19 | JEF United Chiba | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 6 |
| 20 | Tokyo Verdy | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | -14 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 46%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.