· Analysis updated 14:44 UTC
Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.10 expected goals for Cerro Largo and 0.80 for Defensor Sporting, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Cerro Largo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 31%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 37% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 17%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
73.7% probability
Expected goals
1.10 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cerro Largo home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Defensor Sporting away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
74%
Double chance 12
69%
Double chance X2
58%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–016.5%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–113.2%
- 0–112.0%
- 2–09.1%
Recent form
Cerro Largo
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rentistas · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Nacional · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Deportivo Maldonado · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Central Espanol · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-09T22:45:00.000Z · H vs Defensor Sporting · 1-1 (D)
Defensor Sporting
- 2026-10-03T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Albion FC · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-30T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Plaza Colonia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-27T21:00:00.000Z · H vs Danubio · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-20T19:30:00.000Z · A vs Club Nacional · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Maldonado · 1-0 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 1-1 Defensor Sporting (Primera División)
- 2026-07-13T22:00:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 1-1 Defensor Sporting (Primera División)
- 2026-02-21T00:30:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 0-1 Defensor Sporting (Primera División)
- 2025-09-13T21:00:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 1-0 Defensor Sporting (Primera División - Clausura)
- 2025-05-24T23:00:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 2-3 Defensor Sporting (Primera División - Apertura)
- 2025-03-23T00:15:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 0-0 Defensor Sporting (Primera División - Apertura)
- 2024-11-27T21:45:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 3-0 Defensor Sporting (Primera División - Clausura)
- 2024-05-26T18:00:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 1-3 Defensor Sporting (Primera División - Apertura)
- 2023-10-21T22:00:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 0-2 Defensor Sporting (Primera División - Clausura)
- 2023-03-19T12:45:00.000Z · Cerro Largo 0-3 Defensor Sporting (Primera División - Apertura)
Copa Uruguay table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Boston River | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Juventud | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Central Espanol | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Cerrito | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Club Nacional | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Plaza Colonia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Atletico Torque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | CA River Plate | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Rentistas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Danubio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Wanderers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Oriental | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Colón | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 73.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 37% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 74% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.