Estadio General Pablo Rojas · Referee D. Benitez · Analysis updated 13:55 UTC
Cerro Porteno vs Rubio NU Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.90 expected goals for Cerro Porteno and 0.84 for Rubio NU, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Cerro Porteno the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cerro Porteno win
62.2% probability
Expected goals
1.90 – 0.84
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cerro Porteno home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Rubio NU away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cerro Porteno to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 62% / 22% / 16% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.90 goals for Cerro Porteno and 0.84 for Rubio NU, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
84%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
38%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.3%
- 2–011.7%
- 1–110.3%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.4%
Recent form
Cerro Porteno
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Trinidense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Club Guarani · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-07T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-0 (W)
Rubio NU
- 2026-10-11T20:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-06T20:00:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Ameliano · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-30T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-26T19:30:00.000Z · H vs 2 de Mayo · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Cerro Porteno · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Libertad Asuncion | 16 | 9 | 3 | 4 | 7 | 30 |
| 3 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 4 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 5 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 16 | 6 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 25 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 16 | 5 | 1 | 10 | -13 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 16 | 3 | 4 | 9 | -12 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cerro Porteno win, at 62.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.