· Analysis updated 13:42 UTC
Cerro vs Cerrito Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.18 expected goals for Cerro and 1.53 for Cerrito, a combined total of 2.71. That distribution gives Cerrito the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Cerrito win
45.3% probability
Expected goals
1.18 – 1.53
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cerro home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Cerrito away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cerrito to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 29% / 25% / 45% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.18 goals for Cerro and 1.53 for Cerrito, a combined 2.71 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
55%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
71%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 0–110.2%
- 1–29.2%
- 1–07.9%
- 0–27.8%
Recent form
Cerro
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Maldonado · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Penarol · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Progreso · 3-1 (W)
Cerrito
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Plaza Colonia · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T19:00:00.000Z · H vs La Luz · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Wanderers · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T17:00:00.000Z · H vs CA River Plate · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Atenas · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Uruguay table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 2 | Boston River | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 3 | Juventud | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 4 | Central Espanol | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 7 |
| 5 | Cerrito | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 6 | Club Nacional | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 8 | Plaza Colonia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 9 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 10 | Albion FC | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Atletico Torque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 12 | CA River Plate | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 13 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 14 | Rentistas | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Danubio | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 16 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Wanderers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Oriental | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Colón | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Cerrito win, at 45.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.