· Analysis updated 06:46 UTC
Cerro vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.50 expected goals for Cerro and 2.25 for Deportivo Maldonado, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Deportivo Maldonado the largest share of the 1X2 market at 77%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 35% for both teams to score, with 0–2 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 77% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Deportivo Maldonado win
77.4% probability
Expected goals
0.50 – 2.25
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cerro home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Deportivo Maldonado away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Deportivo Maldonado to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 77%, against 7% / 16% / 77% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.50 goals for Cerro and 2.25 for Deportivo Maldonado, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
23%
Double chance 12
84%
Double chance X2
93%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–216.2%
- 0–114.4%
- 0–312.1%
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.2%
Recent form
Cerro
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensor Sporting · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Wanderers · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-27T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Juventud · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Deportivo Maldonado · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T18:30:00.000Z · H vs Penarol · 1-2 (L)
Deportivo Maldonado
- 2026-09-27T00:30:00.000Z · A vs Atletico Torque · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-23T23:00:00.000Z · A vs Cerro · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T21:30:00.000Z · H vs Cerro Largo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Defensor Sporting · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-09T23:00:00.000Z · H vs Wanderers · 4-1 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Copa Uruguay table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deportivo Maldonado | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Club Nacional | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 10 |
| 3 | Boston River | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 |
| 4 | Juventud | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 9 |
| 5 | Danubio | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 7 |
| 6 | Cerrito | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 7 | Central Espanol | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 7 |
| 8 | Liverpool Montevideo | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 9 | Plaza Colonia | 4 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 |
| 10 | CA River Plate | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Penarol | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 12 | Albion FC | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | -2 | 5 |
| 13 | Atletico Torque | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 |
| 14 | Cerro Largo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 15 | Rentistas | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 4 |
| 16 | Racing Montevideo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -4 | 3 |
| 17 | Atenas | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 18 | Defensor Sporting | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | -1 | 2 |
| 19 | Wanderers | 4 | 0 | 2 | 2 | -5 | 2 |
| 20 | Oriental | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 21 | Fenix | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 22 | Cerro | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 23 | Colón | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 24 | Progreso | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Deportivo Maldonado win, at 77.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 35% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 77% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.