· Analysis updated 09:03 UTC
Certosa V. Campagnano vs Atletico Lodigiani Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.08 expected goals for Certosa V. Campagnano and 1.00 for Atletico Lodigiani, a combined total of 4.08. That distribution gives Certosa V. Campagnano the largest share of the 1X2 market at 78%, with the draw at 13%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 77% for over 2.5 goals and 60% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 78% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Certosa V. Campagnano win
78.4% probability
Expected goals
3.08 – 1.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Certosa V. Campagnano home form
13 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Atletico Lodigiani away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Certosa V. Campagnano to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 78%, against 78% / 13% / 9% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.08 goals for Certosa V. Campagnano and 1.00 for Atletico Lodigiani, a combined 4.08 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
91%
Double chance 12
87%
Double chance X2
22%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–08.2%
- 3–18.2%
- 2–08.0%
- 2–18.0%
- 4–06.3%
Recent form
Certosa V. Campagnano
- 2026-10-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Latte Dolce · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Monastir · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Albalonga · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Albalonga · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Aranova · 2-1 (W)
Atletico Lodigiani
- 2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Afragolese · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sarnese · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Unipomezia · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Trastevere · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Certosa V. Campagnano · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Certosa V. Campagnano 1-0 Atletico Lodigiani (Serie D - Girone G)
Serie D - Girone G table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sarnese | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 20 |
| 2 | Monastir | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Certosa V. Campagnano | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Aranova | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 15 |
| 5 | Trastevere | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | -3 | 15 |
| 6 | Paganese | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 13 |
| 7 | Unipomezia | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 13 |
| 8 | Ossese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 9 | Albalonga | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 10 | Anzio | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 13 |
| 11 | Città di Anagni | 9 | 4 | 1 | 4 | -1 | 13 |
| 12 | Afragolese | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 13 | Gelbison | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -6 | 10 |
| 14 | Sarrabus Ogliastra | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -1 | 9 |
| 15 | Venafro | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 16 | Budoni | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -8 | 8 |
| 17 | Latte Dolce | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | -5 | 7 |
| 18 | Atletico Lodigiani | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Certosa V. Campagnano win, at 78.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 60% and over 2.5 goals at 77%.
A 78% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.